The Phillies are an underachieving club, and major changes will be needed if they fail to overtake the Team With No Closer, also known as the Mets, in the National League East.

Left fielder Pat Burrell and center fielder Shane Victorino are hitting well, as are three part-time players: Outfielder Jayson Werth, catcher Chris Coste and infielder Greg Dobbs.

But two of the Phils' most dangerous hitters — first baseman Ryan Howard and shortstop Jimmy Rollins — are not performing at the levels they did a year ago. A third, second baseman Chase Utley, isn't the same hitter he was earlier in the season.

And while the Phils are a respectable fourth in the league in runs per game, they're averaging 4.78 runs, down from 5.51 last season, when they led the league.

Consider their position-by-position NL ranking in on-base/slugging percentage as they prepare to host the Dodgers this weekend (MLB on FOX, Saturday, 3:55 p.m. ET)

Star players on one-year deals are usually worth the investment, no matter how sizable. But the Phillies also could trade Howard, opening up other scenarios such as re-signing Burrell to play first base and trading for Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday.

Burrell, a free agent, wants to remain with the Phillies, and one club official estimates that the team's chances of keeping him are "better than 50-50." Nothing is certain — Burrell likely will command between $14 million and $17 million per season on the open market. But Burrell, 31, actually enjoys playing in Philadelphia, and has been fairly durable over the past four seasons. The days of the Phillies wanting to trade him are long gone.

Holliday? The Phillies made a fleeting attempt to acquire him along with Rockies closer Brian Fuentes before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, and still could match up well with Colorado — particularly if they added to their inventory of young talent by trading Howard.

Yes, Holliday might stay only one season before leaving as a free agent, but at that point the Phillies could figure out something else, something they would find more desirable than paying Howard $15 million to $20 million per season in his final years of arbitration.

These are not easy decisions and the Phillies' situation is complicated by the pending departure of general manager Pat Gillick. The team most likely will replace Gillick by promoting Ruben Amaro or Mike Arbuckle from within. Getting a quality return for Howard — and then dealing with the public-relations fallout — would be a handful for any new GM, but the alternative might be equally unappealing.

Obviously, the Phillies could delay a move on Howard if he goes off in September and helps the team win the division. But let's see it already, from Howard, from all of them. Let's see the Phils finally start hitting instead of driving their bosses batty.

Fly, Blue Jay, fly

If Blue Jays right-hander A.J. Burnett opts out of his contract, the Cardinals, Nationals and Orioles all will be on his wish list, just as they were when he was a free agent after the 2005 season.

Burnett, 31, is likely to re-enter the market — he's 7-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last eight starts, and his 13-strikeout, one-walk victory over the Yankees on Tuesday ranked as one of the best performances of his career.

The Jays, though, aren't in a helpless position: They could make a pre-emptive bid to retain Burnett by increasing his $12 million salary in 2009 and '10 each and/or extending his contract. Burnett is fond of Toronto, close with fellow right-hander Roy Halladay and a fan of manager Cito Gaston. But he will have other options despite his 4.51 ERA.

Burnett hit it off with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa the last time he was a free agent and the Cardinals could have openings in their rotation if they lose Kyle Lohse and/or Braden Looper in free agency.

The Orioles and Nationals appeal to Burnett because he makes his home in Monkton, Md. — his wife, Karen, is a Maryland native. In fact, Burnett's contract entitles her to eight round-trip limousine trips per season between Monkton and Toronto.

How all this will play out is anyone's guess. The Orioles might not be ready to pursue a big-money starting pitcher in free agency and both the Jays and Nationals could hire new general managers after the season.

One other thing: Burnett, like any self-respecting free agent, also would consider the New York teams, both of whom will pursue starting pitchers this offseason.

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