Jake Peavy and Roy Halladay will be traded

Not exactly going out on a limb with Peavy; the Padres will be pathetic both on the field and at the gate, and desperately need the influx of inexpensive young talent that a Peavy blockbuster could provide.

A-Rod will not make it through the season

A-Rod will work his tail off to recover from hip surgery, making it back by May 1, faster than his doctors predicted. Chances are, though, that Rodriguez will be a diminished player — a development that will drive him nuts.

Persevering in a pennant race would make Rodriguez a more sympathetic figure; he cannot be any less of one. But remember, A-Rod still must undergo a second, more extensive surgery. And his resolve would benefit no one if he is a significantly lesser version of himself.

Come July, the Yankees might look more seriously at a temporary replacement such as the Mariners' Adrian Beltre. And A-Rod might abandon his plan to wait until the end of the season to undergo his second surgery.

The WBC will get blamed

Some in the game view the tournament as an all-purpose boogeyman, responsible for every twinge on every participant's body. Commissioner Bud Selig, for one, is tired of such carping, but even for players who avoid injury, the after-effects are a legitimate concern.

Peavy and Astros right-hander Roy Oswalt threw high-intensity innings in mid-March; J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets' two big relief acquisitions, earned maximum-effort saves. Check back on them in August.

The Nats will just have to wear it.

Gary Sheffield will hit his 500th home run

First, he needs a job; the Tigers released him on Tuesday. Sheff, sitting on 499 homers, hardly is assured of signing with a new team quickly. Frank Thomas, another right-handed D.H., is still unemployed.

The real question is how Hall of Fame voters eventually will view Sheffield, who also is just 385 hits short of 3,000. Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro are the only members of the 500-3,000 club.

Sheffield, like Barry Bonds, reportedly testified to a grand jury that he unknowingly used substances alleged to be steroids. Yet, Sheffield has come under far less scrutiny than Bonds from the government and media.

Randy Johnson will earn his 300th victory

Johnson, five victories short of 300, is not as big a lock as Sheffield, but he won 11 games last season at age 44 coming off his second back surgery in two years. The Giants are not a strong offensive club, but Johnson's improved health should enable him to reach 300 with little difficulty.

The 5,000-strikeout milestone will be more difficult to achieve; Johnson is 211 strikeouts short. Nolan Ryan, the only pitcher in history to record 5,000 strikeouts, finished with 5,714.

Managers will get fired. The Yankees will be a soap opera. The World Series will be a doozy

More later in the week.